Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Space Weather Prediction For December 21, 2012 'Doomsday'

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida -- Many apocalyptic predictions call for doomsday to occur in 2012.  The most specific apocalypse countdown clock is predicted for the date of December 21, 2012 based on the Mayan calendar.  Other 12/21/2012 doomsday predictions are derived from Biblical, astrological, mythological or Nostradamus interpretations.

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According to the joint U.S. Air Force and NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast issued on December 18, 2012, the space weather forecast looks good ahead of the so-called Mayan calendar apocalyptic doomsday of December 21, 2012.  

The forecast calls for a 1 percent chance of a powerful Class X solar flare or major solar geomagnetic storm in the Earth's mid-latitudes on the 19, 20, or 21 of December 2012.

According to recent observations and analysis of solar active regions and activity, solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.  The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at Region 1631 (N23W89).  There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.

The space weather solar activity forecast predicts that solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 December, 20 December, 21 December).

Additionally, the geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours and is expect to be at quiet levels for the next three days, including December 21, 2012. 

Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 547 km/s at 18/0822Z.

III. Event probabilities (19 December / 20 December / 21 December)

Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 116
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

But should we be concerned about a solar storm doomsday apocalypse in 2012?  Heliophysicist Alex Young from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center sorts out truth from fiction. 

NASA also offers the following answers to whether the world will end on on December 21, 2012:

Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012.
Answer (A):The world will not end in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.

Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012?
A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012 and linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.

Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012?
A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.

Q: Is NASA predicting a "total blackout" of Earth on Dec. 23 to Dec. 25? A: Absolutely not. Neither NASA nor any other scientific organization is predicting such a blackout. The false reports on this issue claim that some sort of "alignment of the Universe" will cause a blackout. There is no such alignment (see next question). Some versions of this rumor cite an emergency preparedness message from NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. This is simply a message encouraging people to be prepared for emergencies, recorded as part of a wider government preparedness campaign. It never mentions a blackout.

Q: Could planets align in a way that impacts Earth? A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. One major alignment occurred in 1962, for example, and two others happened during 1982 and 2000. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence.

Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.

Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the Earth's crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours?
A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-switch to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. Scientists believe a magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia.

Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012?
A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA Near-Earth Object Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.

Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of the world ending in 2012?
A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012.

Q: Is there a danger from giant solar storms predicted for 2012? A: Solar activity has a regular cycle, with peaks approximately every 11 years. Near these activity peaks, solar flares can cause some interruption of satellite communications, although engineers are learning how to build electronics that are protected against most solar storms. But there is no special risk associated with 2012. The next solar maximum will occur in the 2012-2014 time frame and is predicted to be an average solar cycle, no different than previous cycles throughout history.

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